The Black Swan

Before this book, I thought risk was something you could more or less plan for. Taleb corrected that.

Black swans are events that are highly improbable, massively impactful, and — critically — only seem inevitable in hindsight. We keep building models that treat the past as a reliable guide, when the events that actually reshape things are precisely the ones no model predicted.

The most useful takeaway: stop trusting confident forecasts. Start thinking about how to be positioned when the unpredictable happens.

A challenging read. The fourth Taleb on this list — and worth it.