Fooled by Randomness

I thought I understood why some people succeed and others don't. Taleb complicated that considerably.

The book makes the case that chance plays a far larger role in outcomes than most people — including most successful people — are willing to admit. Our brains are wired to see patterns that aren't there, and to attribute success to skill when luck was doing most of the work.

The concept of survivorship bias was the part that changed me most. When you only see the outcomes of the people who made it, you have no idea what the actual odds were.

Taleb is not an easy read. But this one is worth the effort.